American intelligence officials said this week that among major foreign adversaries Russia is doing the most to exert its influence on the upcoming U.S. general elections and is doing a better job at hiding those activities.
With less than 100 days to go until the 2024 presidential election, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) said in a declassified intelligence community report that a “range of foreign actors” are “conducting or planning influence operations” that target U.S. elections.
Commercial firms including marketing and public relations companies and “witting and unwitting Americans” are the greatest target of foreign influence this election cycle, ODNI said.
“Moscow is leveraging Russia-based influence-for-hire firms to shape public opinion in the United States, including with election-related operations,” said ODNI. “These firms have created influence platforms, directly and discreetly engaged Americans, and used improved tools to tailor content for U.S. audiences, while hiding Russia’s hand.”
“Russian influence actors have undertaken distinct efforts during this election cycle to build and use networks of U.S. and other Western personalities to create and disseminate Russian-friendly narratives,” the agency continued, explaining that these “personalities” post on social media and contribute written content for “various websites.”
This Russian influence campaign has remained steady and adaptable despite recent changes in nominees following President Joe Biden’s drop from the race and Vice President Kamala Harris’s rise to the presumptive Democratic nominee, according to ODNI.
Foreign actors will continue to “promote influence narratives seeking to undermine democratic institutions, foment discord, and/or change public opinion” and are “conducting broader influence campaigns focused on their core interests and to undermine the United States’ global role,” the intelligence agency said.
The ODNI also stated that foreign influence actors are “refining” their methods to remain better hidden from US intelligence detection.
While ODNI said China is unlikely to influence the outcome of November’s election, the agency is closely monitoring the possibility that actors will attempt to influence down-ballot races. China had attempted to influence “anti-China” candidates during the 2022 midterm elections according to a declassified intelligence community report on foreign threats to the 2022 midterm elections.
An ODNI report in February expressed concern that China could use sophisticated methods to attempt to influence American elections.
Iran’s “efforts to fuel distrust in US political institutions and increase social discord” is likely connected to Iranian leaders attempting to “avoid an outcome they perceive would increase tension with the United States,” ODNI said. The agency also said that Iran relies on “vast webs of online personas and propaganda mills” to influence through disinformation.
